Predictors of discharge disposition and mortality following hospitalization with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

IMPORTANCE: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has overwhelmed hospital capacity, prioritizing the need to understand factors associated with type of discharge disposition. OBJECTIVE: Characterization of disposition associated factors following SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: Retrospective study of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients from March 7th, 2020, to May 4th, 2022, requiring hospitalization. SETTING: Midwest academic health-system. PARTICIPANTS: Patients above the age 18 years admitted with PCR + SARS-CoV-2. INTERVENTION: None. MAIN OUTCOMES: Discharge to home versus PAC (inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF), skilled-nursing facility (SNF), long-term acute care (LTACH)), or died/hospice while hospitalized (DH). RESULTS: We identified 62,279 SARS-CoV-2 PCR+ patients; 6,248 required hospitalizations, of whom 4611(73.8%) were discharged home, 985 (15.8%) to PAC and 652 (10.4%) died in hospital (DH). Patients discharged to PAC had a higher median age (75.7 years, IQR: 65.6-85.1) compared to those discharged home (57.0 years, IQR: 38.2-69.9), and had longer mean length of stay (LOS) 14.7 days, SD: 14.0) compared to discharge home (5.8 days, SD: 5.9). Older age (RRR:1.04, 95% CI:1.041-1.055), and higher Elixhauser comorbidity index [EI] (RRR:1.19, 95% CI:1.168-1.218) were associated with higher rate of discharge to PAC versus home. Older age (RRR:1.069, 95% CI:1.060-1.077) and higher EI (RRR:1.09, 95% CI:1.071-1.126) were associated with more frequent DH versus home. Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics were less likely to be discharged to PAC (RRR, 0.64 CI 0.47-0.88), (RRR 0.48 CI 0.34-0.67) and (RRR 0.586 CI 0.352-0.975). Having alpha variant was associated with less frequent PAC discharge versus home (RRR 0.589 CI 0.444-780). The relative risks for DH were lower with a higher platelet count 0.998 (CI 0.99-0.99) and albumin levels 0.342 (CI 0.26-0.45), and higher with increased CRP (RRR 1.006 CI 1.004-1.007) and D-Dimer (RRR 1.070 CI 1.039-1.101). Increased albumin had lower risk to PAC discharge (RRR 0.630 CI 0.497-0.798. An increase in D-Dimer (RRR1.033 CI 1.002-1.064) and CRP (RRR1.002 CI1.001-1.004) was associated with higher risk of PAC discharge. A breakthrough (BT) infection was associated with lower likelihood of DH and PAC. CONCLUSION: Older age, higher EI, CRP and D-Dimer are associated with PAC and DH discharges following hospitalization with COVID-19 infection. BT infection reduces the likelihood of being discharged to PAC and DH.

Prevalence of Medical Contraindications to Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir in a Cohort of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

This analysis describes the prevalence of contraindications to nirmatrelvir/ritonavir among 66 007 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in a large health care system. A possible contradiction was present in 9830 patients (14.8%), with the prevalence of contraindications increasing with higher acuity of illness.

Prevalence of medical contraindications to nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in a cohort of hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19

This analysis describes the prevalence of contraindications to nirmatrelvir/ritonavir among 66,007 patients with COVID-19 in a large health care system. A possible contradiction was present in 9,830 patients (14.8%), with the prevalence of contraindications increasing with higher acuity of illness.

Predictors of Postacute Sequelae of COVID-19 Development and Rehabilitation: A Retrospective Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the frequency of postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) and the factors associated with rehabilitation utilization in a large adult population with PASC. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Midwest hospital health system. PARTICIPANTS: 19,792 patients with COVID-19 from March 10, 2020, to January 17, 2021. INTERVENTION: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Descriptive analyses were conducted across the entire cohort along with an adult subgroup analysis. A logistic regression was performed to assess factors associated with PASC development and rehabilitation utilization. RESULTS: In an analysis of 19,792 patients, the frequency of PASC was 42.8% in the adult population. Patients with PASC compared with those without had a higher utilization of rehabilitation services (8.6% vs 3.8%, P<.001). Risk factors for rehabilitation utilization in patients with PASC included younger age (odds ratio [OR], 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98-1.00; P=.01). In addition to several comorbidities and demographics factors, risk factors for rehabilitation utilization solely in the inpatient population included male sex (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.02-1.50; P=.03) with patients on angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers 3 months prior to COVID-19 infections having a decreased risk of needing rehabilitation (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.64-0.99; P=.04). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PASC had higher rehabilitation utilization. We identified several clinical and demographic factors associated with the development of PASC and rehabilitation utilization.

A 12-hospital prospective evaluation of a clinical decision support prognostic algorithm based on logistic regression as a form of machine learning to facilitate decision making for patients with suspected COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To prospectively evaluate a logistic regression-based machine learning (ML) prognostic algorithm implemented in real-time as a clinical decision support (CDS) system for symptomatic persons under investigation (PUI) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: We developed in a 12-hospital system a model using training and validation followed by a real-time assessment. The LASSO guided feature selection included demographics, comorbidities, home medications, vital signs. We constructed a logistic regression-based ML algorithm to predict "severe" COVID-19, defined as patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or died in or out-of-hospital. Training data included 1,469 adult patients who tested positive for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within 14 days of acute care. We performed: 1) temporal validation in 414 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, 2) validation in a PUI set of 13,271 patients with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 test during an acute care visit, and 3) real-time validation in 2,174 ED patients with PUI test or positive SARS-CoV-2 result. Subgroup analysis was conducted across race and gender to ensure equity in performance. RESULTS: The algorithm performed well on pre-implementation validations for predicting COVID-19 severity: 1) the temporal validation had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.87 (95%-CI: 0.83, 0.91); 2) validation in the PUI population had an AUROC of 0.82 (95%-CI: 0.81, 0.83). The ED CDS system performed well in real-time with an AUROC of 0.85 (95%-CI, 0.83, 0.87). Zero patients in the lowest quintile developed "severe" COVID-19. Patients in the highest quintile developed "severe" COVID-19 in 33.2% of cases. The models performed without significant differences between genders and among race/ethnicities (all p-values > 0.05). CONCLUSION: A logistic regression model-based ML-enabled CDS can be developed, validated, and implemented with high performance across multiple hospitals while being equitable and maintaining performance in real-time validation.

Characterizing COVID-19 clinical phenotypes and associated comorbidities and complication profiles.

PURPOSE: Heterogeneity has been observed in outcomes of hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Identification of clinical phenotypes may facilitate tailored therapy and improve outcomes. The purpose of this study is to identify specific clinical phenotypes across COVID-19 patients and compare admission characteristics and outcomes. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of COVID-19 patients from March 7, 2020 to August 25, 2020 at 14 U.S. hospitals. Ensemble clustering was performed on 33 variables collected within 72 hours of admission. Principal component analysis was performed to visualize variable contributions to clustering. Multinomial regression models were fit to compare patient comorbidities across phenotypes. Multivariable models were fit to estimate associations between phenotype and in-hospital complications and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: The database included 1,022 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Three clinical phenotypes were identified (I, II, III), with 236 [23.1%] patients in phenotype I, 613 [60%] patients in phenotype II, and 173 [16.9%] patients in phenotype III. Patients with respiratory comorbidities were most commonly phenotype III (p = 0.002), while patients with hematologic, renal, and cardiac (all p<0.001) comorbidities were most commonly phenotype I. Adjusted odds of respiratory, renal, hepatic, metabolic (all p<0.001), and hematological (p = 0.02) complications were highest for phenotype I. Phenotypes I and II were associated with 7.30-fold (HR:7.30, 95% CI:(3.11-17.17), p<0.001) and 2.57-fold (HR:2.57, 95% CI:(1.10-6.00), p = 0.03) increases in hazard of death relative to phenotype III. CONCLUSION: We identified three clinical COVID-19 phenotypes, reflecting patient populations with different comorbidities, complications, and clinical outcomes. Future research is needed to determine the utility of these phenotypes in clinical practice and trial design.

Overcoming gaps: regional collaborative to optimize capacity management and predict length of stay of patients admitted with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: Ensuring an efficient response to COVID-19 requires a degree of inter-system coordination and capacity management coupled with an accurate assessment of hospital utilization including length of stay (LOS). We aimed to establish optimal practices in inter-system data sharing and LOS modeling to support patient care and regional hospital operations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We completed a retrospective observational study of patients admitted with COVID-19 followed by 12-week prospective validation, involving 36 hospitals covering the upper Midwest. We developed a method for sharing de-identified patient data across systems for analysis. From this, we compared 3 approaches, generalized linear model (GLM) and random forest (RF), and aggregated system level averages to identify features associated with LOS. We compared model performance by area under the ROC curve (AUROC). RESULTS: A total of 2068 patients were included and used for model derivation and 597 patients for validation. LOS overall had a median of 5.0 days and mean of 8.2 days. Consistent predictors of LOS included age, critical illness, oxygen requirement, weight loss, and nursing home admission. In the validation cohort, the RF model (AUROC 0.890) and GLM model (AUROC 0.864) achieved good to excellent prediction of LOS, but only marginally better than system averages in practice. CONCLUSION: Regional sharing of patient data allowed for effective prediction of LOS across systems; however, this only provided marginal improvement over hospital averages at the aggregate level. A federated approach of sharing aggregated system capacity and average LOS will likely allow for effective capacity management at the regional level.

Responding to COVID-19 Through Interhospital Resource Coordination: A Mixed-Methods Evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic stressed hospital operations, requiring rapid innovations to address rise in demand and specialized COVID-19 services while maintaining access to hospital-based care and facilitating expertise. We aimed to describe a novel hospital system approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic, including multihospital coordination capability and transfer of COVID-19 patients to a single, dedicated hospital. METHODS: We included patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by polymerase chain reaction admitted to a 12-hospital network including a dedicated COVID-19 hospital. Our primary outcome was adherence to local guidelines, including admission risk stratification, anticoagulation, and dexamethasone treatment assessed by differences-in-differences analysis after guideline dissemination. We evaluated outcomes and health care worker satisfaction. Finally, we assessed barriers to safe transfer including transfer across different electronic health record systems. RESULTS: During the study, the system admitted a total of 1209 patients. Of these, 56.3% underwent transfer, supported by a physician-led System Operations Center. Patients who were transferred were older (P = 0.001) and had similar risk-adjusted mortality rates. Guideline adherence after dissemination was higher among patients who underwent transfer: admission risk stratification (P < 0.001), anticoagulation (P < 0.001), and dexamethasone administration (P = 0.003). Transfer across electronic health record systems was a perceived barrier to safety and reduced quality. Providers positively viewed our transfer approach. CONCLUSIONS: With standardized communication, interhospital transfers can be a safe and effective method of cohorting COVID-19 patients, are well received by health care providers, and have the potential to improve care quality.

Metabolic surgery may protect against admission for COVID-19 in persons with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) disease causes significant morbidity and mortality through increased inflammation and thrombosis. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are states of chronic inflammation and indicate advanced metabolic disease. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this observational study was to characterize the risk of hospitalization for COVID-19 in patients with NAFLD/NASH and evaluate the mitigating effect of various metabolic treatments. SETTING: Retrospective analysis of electronic medical record data of 26,896 adults from a 12-hospital Midwest healthcare system with a positive COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test from March 1, 2020, to January 26, 2021. METHODS: Variable selection was guided by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method, and multiple imputation was used to account for missing data. Multivariable logistic regression and competing risk models were used to assess the odds of being hospitalized within 45 days of a COVID-19 diagnosis. Analysis assessed the risk of hospitalization among patients with a prescription for metformin and statin use within the 3 months prior to the COVID-19 PCR result, history of home glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA) use, and history of metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS). Interactions were assessed by sex and race. RESULTS: A history of NAFLD/NASH was associated with increased odds of admission for COVID-19 (odds ratio [OR], 1.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.57-2.26; P < .001) and mortality (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.45-2.67; P < .001). Each additional year of having NAFLD/NASH was associated with a significant increased risk of being hospitalized for COVID-19 (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.14-1.35; P < .001). NAFLD/NASH increased the risk of hospitalization in men, but not women, and increased the risk of hospitalization in all multiracial/multiethnic subgroups. Medication treatments for metabolic syndrome were associated with significantly reduced risk of admission (OR, .81; 95% CI, .67-.99; P < .001 for home metformin use; OR, .71; 95% CI, .65-.83; P < .001 for home statin use). MBS was associated with a significant decreased risk of admission (OR, .48; 95% CI, .33-.69; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD/NASH is a significant risk factor for hospitalization for COVID-19 and appears to account for risk attributed to obesity. Other significant risks include factors associated with socioeconomic status and other co-morbidities, such as history of venous thromboembolism. Treatments for metabolic disease mitigated risks from NAFLD/NASH. More research is needed to confirm the risk associated with visceral adiposity, and patients should be screened for and informed of treatments for metabolic syndrome.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Hospital Admissions from COVID-19: Determining the Impact of Neighborhood Deprivation and Primary Language.

BACKGROUND: Despite past and ongoing efforts to achieve health equity in the USA, racial and ethnic disparities persist and appear to be exacerbated by COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate neighborhood-level deprivation and English language proficiency effect on disproportionate outcomes seen in racial and ethnic minorities diagnosed with COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Health records of 12 Midwest hospitals and 60 clinics in Minnesota between March 4, 2020, and August 19, 2020 PATIENTS: Polymerase chain reaction-positive COVID-19 patients EXPOSURES: Area Deprivation Index (ADI) and primary language MAIN MEASURES: The primary outcome was COVID-19 severity, using hospitalization within 45 days of diagnosis as a marker of severity. Logistic and competing-risk regression models assessed the effects of neighborhood-level deprivation (using the ADI) and primary language. Within race, effects of ADI and primary language were measured using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 5577 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 were included; 866 (n = 15.5%) were hospitalized within 45 days of diagnosis. Hospitalized patients were older (60.9 vs. 40.4 years, p < 0.001) and more likely to be male (n = 425 [49.1%] vs. 2049 [43.5%], p = 0.002). Of those requiring hospitalization, 43.9% (n = 381), 19.9% (n = 172), 18.6% (n = 161), and 11.8% (n = 102) were White, Black, Asian, and Hispanic, respectively. Independent of ADI, minority race/ethnicity was associated with COVID-19 severity: Hispanic patients (OR 3.8, 95% CI 2.72-5.30), Asians (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.74-3.29), and Blacks (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.94). ADI was not associated with hospitalization. Non-English-speaking (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.51-2.43) significantly increased odds of hospital admission across and within minority groups. CONCLUSIONS: Minority populations have increased odds of severe COVID-19 independent of neighborhood deprivation, a commonly suspected driver of disparate outcomes. Non-English-speaking accounts for differences across and within minority populations. These results support the ongoing need to determine the mechanisms that contribute to disparities during COVID-19 while also highlighting the underappreciated role primary language plays in COVID-19 severity among minority groups.

We Should Do More to Offer Evidence-Based Treatment for an Important Modifiable Risk Factor for COVID-19: Obesity.

Observational studies, from multiple countries, repeatedly demonstrate an association between obesity and severe COVID-19, which is defined as need for hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) or death. Meta-analysis of studies from China, USA, and France show odds ratio (OR) of 2.31 (95% CI 1.3-4.1) for obesity and severe COVID-19. Other studies show OR of 12.1 (95% CI 3.25-45.1) for mortality and OR of 7.36 (95% CI 1.63-33.14) for need for IMV for patients with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 35 kg/m2. Obesity is the only modifiable risk factor that is not routinely treated but treatment can lead to improvement in visceral adiposity, insulin sensitivity, and mortality risk. Increasing the awareness of the association between obesity and COVID-19 risk in the general population and medical community may serve as the impetus to make obesity identification and management a higher priority.